Simming the Georgia Affair

I was gonna sim the Georgia affair. Actually, I had simmed it in my head ... but my sim got disrupted by a co-worker who told me about a news report that said that Georgia PROVOKED Russia into INVADING Georgia.

I not-so-calmly explained to her that Russian Tanks didn't just magically appear overnight on the Georgian border! It takes months for those tanks to cross the Caucacus Mountains ... but, hey, the news reporter said what they said. So it must be true, right?

Of course. Of course it's true. Don't be ridiculous. Georgia provoked Russia.

And I realized that even simming the situation (and I'll discuss the sim in a moment) ... there's always going to be people who take the other side, who are contrarian, who don't see what is really happening ... who just don't get it.

That confuses things.

Anyway, here is my Clancyesque sim of the situation: Georgia has been kept out of NATO by the European nations. NATO is not going to accept them magically overnight.

So, what's left? The U.S. What will the U.S. do right off the bat?

Well, obviously the U.S. will not attack Russia right off the bat. The U.S. plays by the International rules.

What are the rules? If a country has violated agreed-upon norms, like Russia has (and don't give me the bullcrap about Georgia violating anything. Why don't you kiss Putin's boots, while you're at it!), countries go after the offending party economically first.

So, the U.S. will most likely go after Russia with an economic embargo.

Now, what does Russia produce? Well, they produce oil.

So, the embargo will involve oil and that will affect us. It will affect Europe -- they won't be happy about it. Apparently, they're willing to go with the oil flow because they don't want their oil supplies to be cut off.

Too bad.

I'm sure the U.S. is going to push for this in the U.N., and I'm sure the U.S. will prevail.

Russia won't be happy about it, and ... at some point, of course, we'll set a deadline for the Russians to leave Georgia. This current ceasefire agreement appears to be falling apart (after all, like terrible houseguests, the Russians won't LEAVE). There will have to a new agreement with a new date that says, "Russia has until this date to get out of Georgia."

And, Russia will not comply, and we will have NO CHOICE but to go in and push them out ... the way we push Iraq out of Kuwait nearly two decades ago.

That, I believe, is what Putin is hoping for. He wants the situation to escalate to that point, and they want to show us that they are not Iraq ... that they will not be pushed out so easily ... and that, once we engage them, they'll say, "You've declared war on us. All bets are off."

I think that's what they're hoping for. At the same time, Iran will take advantage of the opportunity. Attack Israel, Iraq, or whatever the heck they've been wanting to do.

And, while we're at it, why stop there? China will probably take advantage of the opportunity and take over Taiwan. Who knows?

Russia and their allies do not believe the U.S. is in a position to be the world's policeman anymore. They don't believe Europe has the intestinal fortitude to back us up and step in where we can't because we're already stretched out.

They know the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq. They know the U.S. is committed to Afghanistan. And they believe we've reached our limit. They want to take advantage of this.

So, that's the sim that played out in my mind.

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Now, I actually think it's going to be worse than that sim. I think, based on news reports and that there are people here in the U.S. who will actually SYMPATHIZE with Russia! A lot of people.

There are people who are tired of the war. I understand that. Believe me, I understand that.

My answer to that is -- the Russians just killed 2,000 people in a few days. You can't even compare this! This is not an apple, it's an orange. It's totally different. Different set of circumstances.

And, I really think, that when you get down to it, the truth of the matter is we ARE stretched out. AND, we're stretched out psychologically, as a nation. We're stretched out emotionally.

And there's enough people here in the U.S. to prevent us from doing what is right.

Here's the thing: countries like Georgia depend on us. They've asked for our help. They've bought into Democracy because of us. If we don't step in, right here, right now, (Where's Jesus Jones when you need him?) to defend Democracy in a small country like Georgia, then we've failed them. Other countries that have bought into Democracy are going to see that and say, "Well. The U.S. doesn't really believe in what they preach. They only believe it when it's convenient to them. When it's a convenient opponent, like Saddam Hussein."

You better believe it.

If the world's lone Democratic superpower doesn't stand up to OBVIOUS tyranny, this will weaken the argument for Democracy in the world.

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But, hey -- what am I talkin' about? The Georgian's provoked the Russians. The Georgians are EVIL. The Russians are GOOOoood.

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Now, let's remember the good old days, when we thought the Cold War was over: